Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#249
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.8#28
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#197
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.6% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 24.6% 33.0% 12.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.5% 41.2% 24.5%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.4% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 18.5% 30.0%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.9%
First Round3.7% 5.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 60.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 47 - 510 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 244   Norfolk St. W 77-74 60%    
  Nov 29, 2020 270   Radford W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 07, 2020 118   Old Dominion L 71-77 31%    
  Dec 12, 2020 123   George Mason L 73-81 23%    
  Dec 19, 2020 151   @ East Carolina L 77-86 21%    
  Dec 22, 2020 22   @ Florida L 64-86 3%    
  Jan 02, 2021 184   @ Towson L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 04, 2021 184   Towson L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 09, 2021 253   @ UNC Wilmington L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 10, 2021 253   @ UNC Wilmington L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 16, 2021 215   Elon W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 17, 2021 215   Elon W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 23, 2021 163   @ Northeastern L 72-80 25%    
  Jan 24, 2021 163   @ Northeastern L 72-80 25%    
  Jan 30, 2021 162   College of Charleston L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 31, 2021 162   College of Charleston L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 06, 2021 254   @ William & Mary L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 07, 2021 254   @ William & Mary L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 13, 2021 152   Hofstra L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 14, 2021 152   Hofstra L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 20, 2021 197   @ Delaware L 77-83 31%    
  Feb 21, 2021 197   @ Delaware L 77-83 31%    
  Feb 27, 2021 190   Drexel L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 28, 2021 190   Drexel L 78-79 49%    
Projected Record 9 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 6.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.2 4.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.9 2.2 3.9 4.5 3.4 1.2 0.3 16.4 10th
Total 0.9 2.2 4.4 6.8 8.6 10.0 11.0 11.0 10.6 9.6 7.6 6.0 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.6% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 85.3% 0.9    0.7 0.2
14-4 68.7% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 34.3% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 10.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 74.2% 71.0% 3.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1%
17-1 0.1% 29.9% 29.1% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1%
16-2 0.5% 43.5% 43.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.1% 29.2% 28.4% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2%
14-4 2.0% 22.2% 22.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
13-5 3.1% 14.6% 14.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.7
12-6 4.4% 14.2% 14.2% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.8
11-7 6.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 5.5
10-8 7.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.1
9-9 9.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.2
8-10 10.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.4
7-11 11.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.9
6-12 11.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.9
5-13 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-14 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-15 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-16 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.4
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.7 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%